Phillies Odds To Win Division
The Phillies’ implied probability of winning the division is 11.11% or 8/1 fractional odds. With an 8-to-1 payoff, betting PHILLIES (+800) is worth a shot. Odds to win the National League. Odds: +1600 (bet $100 to win $1,600) Five teams have shorter odds – the Dodgers (+175), Padres (+400), Braves (+500), Mets (+600) and St. Louis Cardinals. In the months since the 2020 season ended, a truncated 60-game season that saw a collapsing Phillies miss the playoffs, the entire NL East has seemingly improved. Every team except the Phillies. Playoff odds tell how likely an MLB team will win the division, wild card berth or win the World Series. FanGraphs simulates each season 10,000 times to generate the probabilities.
Phillies updated odds to win NL East and World Series, if there is a season originally appeared on NBC Sports Philadelphia
If you thought the Phillies were going to win 84+ games, and if you believe there will indeed be baseball this season, then their most recent over/under is worth exploring.
Over at DraftKings sportsbook, the Phillies' winning percentage over/under is 52.5%. Over the course of a full season that's a record of at least 84-78. There probably will not be a 162-game season in 2020, and the reduced schedule could certainly affect things. There will be less time for a team's true talent level to play out. You could see a club or two excel early in one-run games to exceed expectations. You could see a club or two struggle in those games and fall well short. A shorter season opens the door for more randomness.
The NL East winning percentage over/unders in full:
Braves: 56%
Nationals: 55%
Mets: 53%
Phillies: 52.5%
Marlins: 40%
Six National League games have a higher number than the Phils and three are in their own division. The others are the Dodgers (62.5%), Cubs (53%) and Cardinals (53%).
The Phillies are +340 to win the NL East, meaning a $100 bet on them to win the division would pay out $340 if they do. The Mets are +320, the Nationals are +230 and the Braves are the favorite at +200. The Marlins are +20000.
Only six MLB teams have shorter odds than the Phillies to win the World Series. Here is the Top 10, where you'll see a huge gap after the first three teams.
Dodgers: +375
Yankees: +400
Astros: +550
Braves: +1200
Nationals: +1600
Twins: +1800
Phillies: +2000
Cardinals: +2000
Rays: +2000
Cubs/Mets/Indians: +2500
It's interesting that the Phillies' World Series odds are shorter than two teams who have higher winning percentage over/unders in the Mets and Cubs. Could mean there's more confidence that if the Phillies get to the playoffs, they could make a deeper run than those teams. Earning a playoff spot in the NL East - probably the best division in baseball - would be difficult enough ... if the NL East is still set up the same way in the unprecedented season ahead.
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The Philadelphia Phillies are truly going to have to defy the odds if they are going to win their third World Series in franchise history in 2021.
With a week until pitchers and catchers report to spring training, Bovada released its updated World Series odds on Wednesday with the Phillies ranked at No. 17.
Here is the complete list of 2021 World Series odds:
Los Angeles Dodgers: +300
New York Yankees: +600
San Diego Padres: +750
New York Mets: +900
Chicago White Sox: +1000
Atlanta Braves: +1100
Toronto Blue Jays: +1800
Minnesota Twins: +2000
Oakland Athletics: +2200
St. Louis Cardinals: +2500
Tampa Bay Rays: +2500
Houston Astros: +2500
Cincinnati Reds: +3500
Los Angeles Angels: +4000
Cleveland Indians: +4000
Chicago Cubs: +4000
Philadelphia Phillies: +4500
Boston Red Sox: +5000
Washington Nationals: +5000
Milwaukee Brewers: +6600
Miami Marlins: +7000
San Francisco Giants: +8000
Seattle Mariners: +10000
Arizona Diamondbacks: +12500
Baltimore Orioles: +12500
Kansas City Royals: +12500
Detroit Tigers: +12500
Colorado Rockies: +15000
Pittsburgh Pirates: +20000
Defying grim expectations at the start of the offseason to retain a majority of its core — most notably bringing back JT Realmuto and Didi Gregorius — the Phillies are still considerably down on Bovada’s list. A lot of that has to do with the division that they are playing in, though.
The Phillies have the third-best World Series odds amongst teams in the National League East, which many consider being the most competitive division in baseball.
The Mets rode the wave of getting a new owner to have one of the more active offseasons in the majors to nab the fourth-best odds to win it all in 2021.
They bulked up their bullpen in a considerable way by acquiring Trevor May and Aaron Loup, found their franchise catcher in Brian McCann, and made one of the blockbusters of the winter by acquiring Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco.
As for the Braves, the defending NL East champions come in as the sixth-best favorites to win the World Series.
Phillies Odds To Win Division
They have one of the best cores in baseball that will be together for the long haul in Ronald Acuna, Freddie Freeman, and Ozzie Albies.
This offseason, they brought in veteran Charlie Morton to bolster the rotation while bringing back slugging outfielder Marcell Ozuna to add a little more pop to the lineup.
Phillies Odds To Win Division 2
Those two teams seem to be in a much better place than the Phillies even if they boast the likes of Realmuto, Bryce Harper, and Rhys Hoskins.
Plenty of question marks surround all assets of their pitching staff — both in the starting rotation and bullpen. There is a lack of proven depth behind ace Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler while the league’s worst bullpen last year made incremental improvements — most notably bringing on Archie Bradley.